Abstract:Objective：Toanalyze and predict the trend of per capita medical expenses in Shanghai public hospitals，and provide references for the advancement and implementation of medical expenses control policies. Methods：The descriptive analysis method was used to analyze outpatient and inpatient medical expenses of Shanghai public hospitals from 2010 to 2019，and the GM（1，1）gray prediction model was used to predict the data. Results：The average medical expenses of outpatients in Shanghai public hospitals increased from 243.7 yuan in 2010 to 389.3 yuanin 2019，and average drug expenses had decreased since 2016. It was predicted that by 2024，the average outpatient medical expenses will reach to 509.8 yuan. The per capita medical expenses of inpatients increased from 12，225 yuanto 18 618.7 yuan，and the per capita drug expenses in 2019 were lower than that in 2010. It was predicted that the per capita medical expenses for inpatients in 2024 will be 23，991.4 yuan. The proportion of drugs per capita in outpatient and inpatienthad shown a downward trendyear by year. Conclusions：The growth rate of medical expenses in Shanghai public hospitals has slowed down，and drugexpenses are well controlled，which shows that the medical reform has achieved results. It is still necessary to monitor and evaluate medical expenses to fully control the unreasonable growth of medical expenses.