Mathematical Modeling Demand Forecasting Inventory Management Dispensing Mechanism
扬州市科技计划项目（YZ2023148）；江苏省输血协会英科新创科研基金（JS2022032）
目的：探索临床用血需求和血液库存管理的协同机制。方法：基于数学建模方法，建立并运行需求、库存和调剂模型。结果：需求模型优化后，某市临床用血需求满足率显著提高，红细胞的需求满足率整体提升了15%。库存模型优化后，血液库存过期率减少了20%，库存成本得到有效控制，库存周转率有所提升。调剂模型优化后，调剂效率明显提高，整体调剂成功率由年初的80%提升至年末的94.4%，平均调剂时间从年初的4.5小时缩短到年末的3.1小时。结论：通过建立科学的数学模型和优化管理策略，可以有效提升血液供应链的整体响应能力和管理效率，尤其是在应对季节性波动或突发公共事件时表现出较强的适应性。
Objective：To explore the synergistic mechanism of clinical blood demand and blood inventory management. Methods：Based on mathematical modeling methods，demand，inventory and adjustment models were established. Results：After the demand model was optimized，the clinical blood demand satisfaction rate in a certain city was significantly improved，and the overall satisfaction rate of red blood cells increased by 15%. After the inventory model was optimized，the blood inventory expiration rate was reduced by 20%，the inventory cost was effectively controlled，and the inventory turnover rate was improved. After the adjustment model was optimized，the adjustment efficiency was significantly improved，the overall adjustment success rate increased from 80% at the beginning of the year to 94.4% at the end of the year，and the average adjustment time was reduced from 4.5 hours at the beginning of the year to 3.1 hours at the end of the year. Conclusion：By establishing a scientific mathematical model and optimizing management strategies，the overall responsiveness and management efficiency of the blood supply chain can be effectively improved，especially in response to seasonal fluctuations or public emergencies，showing strong adaptability.