Outpatient volume Children’s hospital Seasonal index Change trend
目的：分析某三甲儿童医院2015年-2019年门诊人次变化特征，为提高医院管理效能，优化服务流程，合理配置医疗资源提供科学依据。方法：对医院门诊量按时间序列分析法和季节指数法进行统计，分析门诊量年度、季度、月度的变化情况。结果：医院门诊量近5年逐年升高，平均发展速度为108.22%，季节指数显示2月份和12月份分别为每年的最低谷（80.15%）和最高峰（118.63%），一季度和四季度分别是全年的最低（93.69%）和最高（107.09%）。结论：医院门诊量有明显的季节性和周期性特点，每年在一季度出现低谷，四季度迎来高峰，暑期为次高峰。医院管理者应根据此特点合理配置医疗资源，人员错峰休假、弹性排班，高峰期做好实时监测和应急方案，低峰期拓展服务形式，更好地满足患者就诊需求。
Objective：To understand the characteristics of outpatient volume in a certain Grade-A Tertiary Children’sHospital from 2015 to 2019，so as to provide scientific basis for improving hospital management efficiency，optimizing service process and allocating medical resources reasonably. Methods：According to the time series analysis method and the seasonal index method，we analyzed the annual，quarterly and monthly changes of outpatient volume. Results：The number of outpatients increased year by year in recent five years，with an average growth rate of 108.22%. The seasonal index showed that February and December were the lowest（80.15%）and the highest（118.63%）of each year. The first quarter and the fourth quarter were the lowest（93.69%）and the highest（107.09%）respectively. Conclusion：The number of outpatients in the hospital has obvious seasonal and cyclical characteristics. It has a trough in the first quarter and a peak in the fourth quarter，and secondary peak in the summer vacation time. Hospital managers should reasonably allocate medical resources according to the characteristics，take off peak vacations and arrange shifts flexibly，make real-time monitoring and emergency plans during peak periods，expand service forms in trough periods，and to meet the needs of patients better.