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中文摘要: 目的：优化医疗资源配置，提高医院管理效能，通过对医院门诊量动态分析，掌握门诊量变化趋势及规律。方法：采用时间序列分析法和季节指数法，分析2012-2018年某三甲综合医院门诊量的年度、季度、月度变化情况。结果：医院门诊量呈逐年上升趋势，平均增长速度为6.33%，门诊量有季节变化规律，第一季度季节指数低于100%，仅有88.52%，第三季度最高（108.89%），全年中2月季节指数最低（74.88%），7月最高（114.12%）。结论：医院门诊量有明显的线性增长趋势，并且有季节性和周期性变化规律，医院应根据此增长趋势及变化规律合理配置资源，改善医院管理。
Abstract:Objectives：To analyze the dynamics of outpatient volume in a grade three class A general hospital from 2012 to 2018，and to optimize the allocation of medical resources and improve the efficiency of hospital management. Methods：Time series analysis and seasonal index method were used to analyze the annual，quarterly and monthly changes of outpatient volume in a grade three class A general hospital from 2012 to 2018. Results：The outpatient volume increased year by year，with an average growth rate of 6.33%. The outpatient volume showed seasonal variation. The first quarter seasonal index was lower than 100%，only 88.52%，and the highest in the third quarter（108.89%）. The February seasonal index was the lowest（74.88%）and the highest in July（114.12%）. Conclusions：There is a clear linear growth trend in outpatient volume，and there are seasonal and cyclical changes. Hospitals should rationally allocate resources according to this growth trend and changing rules to improve hospital management.
keywords: outpatient volume change trend seasonal index
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（81560555） 国家自然科学基金项目（81560555）
引用文本：
林桂玲,蒋圆圆,霍海英.2012-2018年某三甲综合医院门诊量动态分析△[J].江苏卫生事业管理,2019,30(6):754-757.
Lin Guiling,JiangYuanyuan,Huo Haiying.Dynamic Analysis of Outpatient Volume in a Grade Three Class A General Hospital from 2012 to 2018△[J].Jiangsu Health System Management,2019,30(6):754-757.
林桂玲,蒋圆圆,霍海英.2012-2018年某三甲综合医院门诊量动态分析△[J].江苏卫生事业管理,2019,30(6):754-757.
Lin Guiling,JiangYuanyuan,Huo Haiying.Dynamic Analysis of Outpatient Volume in a Grade Three Class A General Hospital from 2012 to 2018△[J].Jiangsu Health System Management,2019,30(6):754-757.
